Report from Pennsylvania

First of all, there were 35,000 people out for the Barack Obama rally last night in Philly. By way of comparison, the Pope gave a mass for 46,000 down in Washington, DC earlier this week. So that's pretty crazy.

It's hard to tell how this election is going to go on Tuesday. The polls are all over the place, and as a newcomer to the state, I don't have much of a feel for what the ground feels like. A few observations that might be of interest to my comrades elsewhere.

1. My immediate neighborhood could not be more demographically friendly to Obama. It is a mixture of middle-class African Americans, the particularly-liberal wing of white university folks, and then, if that wasn't enough, a sizable community of recent African immigrants (an Obama constituency if there ever was one). So that's what Obama is starting with here, and sure enough, judging from lawn signs and conversations, the neighborhood is mostly pro-Obama. But, and this is interesting, there is definitely a strong Clinton contingent as well. It's hard to speculate who they are; the neighborhood does have a smattering of white ethnic non-university-affiliated people left over from population trends of previous generations. There are also lots of party activists around here, and that is a demographic that tends towards Clinton-supporting in my experience. Obama really needs to max out his vote totals in Philadelphia, so it is not great that things are as split as they are.

2. That said, I know quite a few people in Philadelphia who have switched from Clinton to Obama just in the last few weeks. It seems mostly to be backlash from her negative campaigning, particularly Bittergate.

3. Obama made some bad mistakes in mobilizing the LGBT vote in Philadelphia. This is really too bad, because as I say, he really needs to win Philly by huge margins, and we queer folk are an important part of the city's political scene. And yet, when the local gay newspaper tried to interview the two candidates, only Clinton responded. Plus, my friend who is more involved in this stuff than I am tells me that when the Liberty City Democratic Club was meeting to decide on an endorsement, the Clinton campaign sent Chelsea to represent. The Obama campaign didn't send anyone. They did arrange to have Melissa Etheridge address the group on his behalf, but that's not the same as a high level representative in person. Both of these things are stupid moves. As the Obama campaign is not stupid, and is very well-organized, one gets the feeling that they are taking our vote for granted. Not cool, and a wasted opportunity. Sure enough, Liberty City endorsed Clinton.

4. Mayor Nutter, who has been a vocal Clinton supporter, is very popular in Philadelphia right now. That's too bad.

My prediction is Clinton will win in the five points realm. That's still great for Obama, as he was originally behind by almost twenty points just a few weeks ago. One other possibility is that Clinton will get a bunch of the undecideds and inflate that margin, as happened in Ohio. Or, on the other hand, the momentum will keep swinging to Obama, and there might be an upset. Hard to tell, especially for a newcomer like me.